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Trend following has long been a strategy of traditional commodity trading advisors (CTAs), sometimes referred to as managed futures, it's a popular strategy that trades in the direction of the underlying trend on a basket of commodity futures. But the question for us stock traders, does trend following work on stocks?
Trend following is a trading strategy that involves identifying and following trends in financial markets. This can include stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and other financial instruments. The basic idea behind trend following is that markets tend to move in trends, and by identifying these trends, traders can make profitable trades.
Trend following typically involves using technical analysis tools to identify trends, such as moving averages and trend lines. Traders may also use momentum indicators and other technical indicators to confirm the presence of a trend.
Once a trend has been identified, the trader will typically enter a position in the market, either buying or selling depending on the direction of the trend. They will then hold the position for a period of time, typically until the trend shows signs of reversing.
But does it work on stocks?
Trend following can be applied to stocks, and there is some evidence that it can be a profitable trading strategy. However, it's worth noting that past performance does not guarantee future results and that trend following is not a "sure thing" or a risk-free strategy.
One study, "The Profitability of Technical Analysis: A Review," by J. Huston McCulloch, published in the Journal of Economics and Business in 2000, found that trend-following technical indicators were profitable in the U.S. stock market.
Another study, "Trend Following and Return Predictability" by M.H. Pesaran and Y. Shin, published in the Journal of Financial Economics in 1999, found that trend-following rules were profitable in the U.S. stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets.
One argument for why trend following may work in the stock market is that it can help traders identify and take advantage of market trends. Markets tend to move in trends, and these trends can be caused by a variety of factors such as changes in investor sentiment, economic conditions, and company fundamentals.
By identifying these trends, trend following traders can enter into positions that align with the direction of the trend and potentially profit from the move.
Additionally, trend following may be particularly effective in volatile markets, as trends may be more likely to develop and be sustained in such conditions.
It's also worth noting that trend following is not the only strategy that traders use. Many traders combine trend following with other strategies, such as value investing and momentum trading, to try to improve their chances of success.
What are the advantages of using a trend following strategy on stocks?
There are several advantages of using a trend following strategy on stocks as compared to a traditional buy and hold approach. Some of these include:
Risk management: A trend following strategy can help traders manage risk by getting them in and out of positions in a timely manner. By identifying trends, traders can enter into positions that align with the direction of the trend, and then exit those positions if the trend starts to reverse. This can help traders avoid large losses that can occur if they hold onto a position that is trending in the opposite direction.
Flexibility: A trend following strategy allows traders to be flexible and adapt to changing market conditions. By identifying trends, traders can enter into positions that align with the direction of the trend, and then exit those positions if the trend starts to reverse. This flexibility can help traders take advantage of different market conditions and potentially increase returns.
Better returns: By identifying trends, trend following traders may be able to enter into positions that align with the direction of the trend and potentially profit from the move. This can lead to better returns than a buy and hold approach, which may be more likely to generate returns that are in line with the overall market.
Avoiding emotional decisions: A trend following strategy can help traders avoid emotional decisions that can negatively impact their portfolio. By having a set of rules in place to identify and follow trends, traders can make decisions based on objective data rather than emotions.
How can I use a trend following strategy on stocks?
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